USD/CHF Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9854; (P) 0.9906; (R1) 0.9934; More…

USD/CHF struggles to get through 4 hour 55 EMA and is held well below 0.9977 resistance so far. Intraday bias remains neutral first. On the upside, above 0.9977 will bring retest of 1.0067 first. Decisive break there will resume larger rally from 0.9186. On the downside, below 0.9866 will extend the fall from 1.0067 through 0.9856 to 0.9787 support. As price actions from 1.0056 are seen as a corrective pattern, downside should be contained by 38.2% retracement of 0.9186 to 1.0056 at 0.9724 to bring rebound.

In the bigger picture, current development suggests that the consolidation pattern from 1.0056 is extending with another leg. As long as 38.2% retracement of 0.9186 to 1.0056 at 0.9724 holds, we’d expect rise from 0.9186 to resume at a later stage to retest 1.0342 key resistance (2016 high). However, sustained break of 0.9724 will bring deeper fall, as another declining leg in the long term range pattern.