USD/JPY Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 110.92; (P) 111.04; (R1) 111.20; More…

USD/JPY spikes higher to 111.43 earlier today but upside is limited below 111.53 minor resistance. Intraday bias stays neutral for consolidation above 110.58 temporary low. with 111.53 intact, deeper fall is expected. On the downside, below 110.58 will extend the corrective fall from 113.17. But in that case, we’d expect strong support from 38.2% retracement of 104.62 to 113.17 at 109.90 to bring rebound. On the upside, break of 111.53 will turn bias to the upside for retesting 113.17 high.

In the bigger picture, corrective fall from 118.65 (2016 high) should have completed with three waves down to 104.62. Decisive break of 114.73 resistance will likely resume whole rally from 98.97 (2016 low) to 100% projection of 98.97 to 118.65 from 104.62 at 124.30, which is reasonably close to 125.85 (2015 high). This will stay as the preferred case as long as 109.36 support holds.