USD/CHF Weekly Outlook

USD/CHF’s rebound from 0.9900 last week suggests that pull back from 1.0067 has completed already. But as the pair retreated after hitting 0.9977, initial bias is neutral this week first. On the upside, above 0.9977 will extend the rise from 0.9900 to retest 1.0067 high. Break will resume whole rally from 0.9186. However, on the downside, break of 0.9900 will target 0.9856 support instead.

In the bigger picture, as long as 0.9787 support holds, we’re favoring the bullish case. That is, rise from 0.9787 is resuming the whole up trend from 0.9186 and should target 1.0342 key resistance on resumption. However, break of 0.9787 will indicate medium term reversal and turn outlook bearish.

In the long term picture, price actions from 0.7065 (2011 low) are not clearly impulsive yet. Thus, we’ll treat it as developing into a corrective pattern, at least, until a firm break of 1.0342 resistance.