USD/JPY Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 111.02; (P) 111.83; (R1) 112.26; More…

USD/JPY recovers mildly after hitting as long as 110.74. It then recovers mildly on oversold condition in 4 hour RSI. But as upside is limited below 111.50 minor resistance. intraday bias remains on the downside for 55 day EMA (now at 110.45) and below. However, as fall from 113.17 is seen as a correction to rise from 104.62, downside, should be contained by 38.2% retracement of 104.62 to 113.17 at 109.90 to bring rebound. On the upside, above 111.50 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral first. But break of 113.17 is needed to confirm up trend resumption. Otherwise, more consolidation would be seen with risk of another fall.

In the bigger picture, corrective fall from 118.65 (2016 high) should have completed with three waves down to 104.62. Decisive break of 114.73 resistance will likely resume whole rally from 98.97 (2016 low) to 100% projection of 98.97 to 118.65 from 104.62 at 124.30, which is reasonably close to 125.85 (2015 high). This will stay as the preferred case as long as 109.36 support holds.