USD/JPY Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 111.02; (P) 111.83; (R1) 112.26; More…

USD/JPY’s fall from 113.17 extends today and hits as low as 110.74 so far. Intraday bias stays on the downside for 55 day EMA (now at 110.45) and below. However, such decline is seen as correcting whole rally from 104.62. Hence, we’d expect strong support from 38.2% retracement of 104.62 to 113.17 at 109..90 to contain downside and bring rebound. On the upside, above 111.50 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral first. But break of 113.17 is needed to confirm up trend resumption. Otherwise, more condition would be seen with risk of another fall.

In the bigger picture, corrective fall from 118.65 (2016 high) should have completed with three waves down to 104.62. Decisive break of 114.73 resistance will likely resume whole rally from 98.97 (2016 low) to 100% projection of 98.97 to 118.65 from 104.62 at 124.30, which is reasonably close to 125.85 (2015 high). This will stay as the preferred case as long as 109.36 support holds.