USD/CHF Weekly Outlook

USD/CHF’s steep decline last week suggested that, at least, USD/CHF is not ready for rally resumption yet. Initial bias is mildly on the downside this week for 0.9856 support first. Break there will pave the way to key support level at 0.9787. On the upside, above 0.9957 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral first.

In the bigger picture, as long as 0.9787 support holds, we’re still favoring the bullish case. That is, rise fro 0.9787 is resuming the whole up trend from 0.9186 and should target 1.0342 key resistance on resumption. However, break of 0.9787 will indicate medium term reversal and turn outlook bearish.

In the long term picture, price actions from 0.7065 (2011 low) are not clearly impulsive yet. Thus, we’ll treat it as developing into a corrective pattern, at least, until a firm break of 1.0342 resistance.