GBP/USD Weekly Outlook

GBP/USD’s downside resumed and extended to as low as 1.2956 last week. But subsequent rebound suggests short term bottoming there. Initial bias is neutral this week for some more consolidations first. Stronger recovery could be seen but upside should be limited below 1.3362 resistance to bring fall resumption. On the downside, break of 1.2956 will resume the fall from 1.4376 to 1.2874 fibonacci level

In the bigger picture, whole medium term rebound from 1.1946 (2016 low) should have completed at 1.4376 already, after rejection from 55 month EMA (now at 1.4179). Fall from 1.4376 should extend to 61.8% retracement of 1.1946 (2016 low) to 1.4376 at 1.2874 next. Decisive break of 1.2874 will raise the chance of long term down trend resumption through 1.1946 low. On the upside, break of 1.3362 resistance is needed to be the first indication of medium term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish even in case of strong rebound.

In the longer term picture, rise from 1.1946 (2016 low) is viewed as a corrective move, no change in this view. Rejection from 55 month EMA argues that it might be completed already. Larger down trend from 2.1161 (2007 high) could extend to a new low. This will now be the preferred case as long as 1.4376 resistance holds.