USD/CAD Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3133; (P) 1.3196; (R1) 1.3232; More…

USD/CAD’s breach of 1.3258 suggests that rebound from 1.3063 has resumed again. Intraday bias is back on the upside even though upside momentum isn’t too convincing. We’d holding on to the bullish view that pull back from 1.3385 has completed at 1.3063 already. Rise from there should target a test on 1.3385 first. Break there will resume whole rally from 1.2061 for 1.3685 fibonacci level. In case of another fall, we’d still expect strong support from 1.3067 resistance turned support to contain downside.

In the bigger picture, as long as channel support (now at 1.2870) holds, we’ll holding to the bullish view. That is, fall from 1.4689 (2015 high) has completed at 1.2061, ahead of 50% retracement of 0.9406 (2011 low) to 1.4689 (2015 high) at 1.2048. Further rally should be seen for 61.8% retracement of 1.4689 to 1.2061 at 1.3685 and above. However, sustained break of the channel support will argue that rise from 1.2061 has completed and will bring deeper fall to 1.2526 support to confirm.