GBP/USD Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3204; (P) 1.3248; (R1) 1.3280; More…

GBP/USD drops sharply today but stays in range of 1.3102/3362. Intraday bias is turned neutral first. The consolidation pattern from 1.3048 could still extend. But still, in case of another rise, upside should be limited by 1.3471 to bring larger decline resumption eventually. On the downside, break of 1.3048 will resume fall from 1.4376 for 1.2874 fibonacci level next.

In the bigger picture, whole medium term rebound from 1.1936 (2016 low) should have completed at 1.4376 already, after rejection from 55 month EMA (now at 1.4179). Fall from 1.4376 should extend to 61.8% retracement of 1.1936 (2016 low) to 1.4376 at 1.2874 next. We’ll pay attention to the reaction from there to asses the chance of long term down trend resumption. On the upside, sustained break of 38.2% retracement of 1.4376 to 1.3048 at 1.3555 is needed to indicate medium term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish in case of strong rebound.