GBP/JPY Weekly Outlook

GBP/JPY rose to as high as 148.88 last week before forming a temporary top there and retreated. As the whole rebound form 143.18 has resumed, further rise is now expected s long as 146.79 support holds. Above 148.88 will target 149.99 resistance. Break there will add more credence to the larger bullish case and target 153.84 resistance next. On the downside, though break of 146.79 will argue that the rebound from 143.76 might be finished and turn bias back to the downside

In the bigger picture, no change in the view that decline from 156.59 is a corrective move. In case of another fall, strong support should be seen above 139.29 cluster support (50% retracement of 122.36 to 156.59 at 139.47) to contain downside and bring rebound. Meanwhile, break of 153.84 should confirm that the correction is completed and target 156.59 and above to resume the medium term up trend.

In the longer term picture, the failure to sustain above 55 month EMA (now at 153.36) is mixing up the outlook. Nonetheless, as long as 139.29 holds, rise from 122.26 is in favor to extend to 50% retracement of 195.86 (2015high) to 122.36 (2016 low) at 159.11, and possibly further to 61.8% retracement at 167.78 before completion. However, firm break of 139.29 will turn focus back to 116.83/122.36 support zone instead.