EUR/JPY Weekly Outlook

EUR/JPY surged to as high as 131.52 last week as the rise from 124.61 resumed. As a temporary top was formed, initial bias is neutral for some consolidations first. Downside of retreat should be contained by 129.55 minor support to bring another rally. Above 131.52 will target 100% projection of 124.61 to 130.33 from 127.13 at 132.85 next.

In the bigger picture, the strong break of channel resistance from 137.49 suggests that the decline from there as completed. The three wave structure suggests that it’s a correction. With 124.08 key resistance turned support intact, medium term bullishness is also retained. Break of 133.47 will affirm this bullish case and target 137.49 and above. This will now be the favored case as long as 127.13 support holds.

In the long term picture, at this point, EUR/JPY is staying in long term sideway pattern, established since 2000. Rise from 109.03 is seen as a leg inside the pattern. As long as 124.08 support holds, further rally is in favor in medium to long term through 149.76 high. However, break of 124.08 could extend the fall through 109.03 low instead.