EUR/GBP Weekly Outlook

EUR/GBP edged higher to 0.8910 last week but failed to extend recent rally. Initial bias remains neutral this week first. Further rise is mildly in favor as long as 0.8808 minor support holds. Break of 0.8901 will resume the rebound fro 0.8620 and target 0.8967 cluster resistance (50% retracement of 0.9305 to 0.8620 at 0.8963). However, break of 0.8808 support will be the first sign that whole rebound from 0.8620 is completed. Deeper fall would then be seen to 0.8724 support for confirmation.

In the bigger picture, EUR/GBP is staying in long term consolidation pattern from 0.9304 (2016 high). Such consolidation pattern could extend further. Hence, in case of strong rally, we’d be cautious on strong resistance from 0.9304/5 to limit upside. Meanwhile, in another decline attempt, we’d expect strong support from 0.8116 cluster support (50% retracement of 0.6935 to 0.9304 at 0.8120) to contain downside.

In the long term picture, we’re holding on to the view that rise from 0.6935 (2015 low) is resuming the up trend from 0.5680 (2000 low). Hence, after the consolidation from 0.9304 completes, we’d expect another medium term up trend through 0.9799 to 100% projection of 0.5680 to 0.9799 from 0.6935 at 1.1054.