GBP/USD Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3175; (P) 1.3209; (R1) 1.3239; More…

Intraday bias in GBP/USD remains on the downside for 1.3048 low. Firm break there will resume larger fall from 1.4376 for 1.2874 fibonacci level next. On the upside, above 1.3244 minor resistance will delay the bearish case and bring another recovery. But we’d expect strong resistance from 1.3471 to limit upside to finish the consolidation from 1.3048.

In the bigger picture, whole medium term rebound from 1.1936 (2016 low) should have completed at 1.4376 already, after rejection from 55 month EMA (now at 1.4179). Fall from 1.4376 should extend to 61.8% retracement of 1.1936 (2016 low) to 1.4376 at 1.2874 next. We’ll pay attention to the reaction from there to asses the chance of long term down trend resumption. On the upside, sustained break of 38.2% retracement of 1.4376 to 1.3048 at 1.3555 is needed to indicate medium term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish in case of strong rebound.