EUR/AUD edged high to 1.5886 last week but turned sideway since then. Initial bias remains neutral this week for some consolidations first. As long as 1.5696 minor support holds, further rise remains in favor. Above 1.5886 will resume the rebound from 1.5271 and target 1.6189 high. However, as the rebound from 1.5271 is not clearly impulsive yet and momentum isn’t too convincing. Break of 1.5695 minor support could be an early sign of near term topping. In such case, focus will be back on 1.5425 support.
In the bigger picture, current development suggests that fall from 1.6189 is a corrective move and has completed at 1.5217 already. Key support levels of 1.5153 and 38.2% retracement of 1.3624 to 1.6189 at 1.5209 were defended. And medium term rise from 1.3624 (2017 low) is still in progress. Break of 1.6189 will target 1.6587 key resistance (2015 high).
In the longer term picture, the rise from 1.1602 long term bottom (2012 low) isn’t over yet. We’ll keep monitoring the development but there is prospect of extending the rise to 61.8% retracement of 2.1127 to 1.1602 at 1.7488 and above. However, sustained trading below 1.3624 key support should indicate long term reversal and target 1.1602 long term bottom again.