USD/JPY Weekly Outlook

USD/JPY edged higher to 111.13 last week but last momentum since then. Initial bias is neutral this week first. Current development argues that rebound from 108.10 could have completed already. Break of 110.27 will turn bias to the downside for 109.36. Break there will confirm that corrective pattern from 111.39 has started the third leg for 108.10 support. In that case, we’d expect downside to be contained by 61.8% retracement of 104.62 to 111.39 at 107.20. On the upside, above 111.13 will bring retest of 111.39 instead.

In the bigger picture, at this point, we’re slightly favoring the case that corrective decline from 118.65 (2016 high) has completed with three waves down to 104.62. Above 111.39 will affirm this view and target 114.73 for confirmation. However, it should be noted that USD/JPY is bounded in medium term falling channel from 118.65 (2016 high). Sustained break of 61.8% retracement of 104.62 to 111.39 at 107.20 will likely resume the fall from 118.65 through 104.62 low.

In the long term picture, the rise from 75.56 (2011 low) long term bottom to 125.85 top is viewed as an impulsive move, no change in this view. Price actions from 125.85 are seen as a corrective move which could still extend. In case of deeper fall, downside should be contained by 61.8% retracement of 75.56 to 125.85 at 94.77. Up trend from 75.56 is expected to resume at a later stage for above 135.20/147.68 resistance zone.