USD/JPY Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 110.32; (P) 110.47; (R1) 110.66; More…

USD/JPY drew support from 4 hour 55 EMA and recovers. Intraday bias is turned neutral again. On the downside, below 110.27 will target a test on 109.36 support. Break of 109.36 support will confirm that corrective pattern from 111.39 has started the third leg. And USD/JPY should target 108.10, and possibly below. In that case, we’d expect downside to be contained by 61.8% retracement of 104.62 to 111.39 at 107.20. On the upside, above 111.13 will bring retest of 111.39 instead.

In the bigger picture, at this point, we’re slightly favoring the case that corrective decline from 118.65 (2016 high) has completed with three waves down to 104.62. Above 111.39 will affirm this view and target 114.73 for confirmation. However, it should be noted that USD/JPY is bounded in medium term falling channel from 118.65 (2016 high). Sustained break of 61.8% retracement of 104.62 to 111.39 at 107.20 will likely resume the fall from 118.65 through 104.62 low.