USD/JPY Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 110.39; (P) 110.67; (R1) 110.96; More…

A temporary top is in place at 111.31 with 4 hour MACD crossed below signal line. Intraday bias is turned neutral first with focus on 110.55 minor support. The overall outlook remains unchanged that , the corrective pattern from 111.39 could then extend with another down leg. On the downside, break of 110.55 minor support will turn bias to the downside for 109.36 support first. Break will target 108.10 support to extend that consolidation. On the upside, above 111.13 will bring retest of 111.39 high. Break there will also resume the rise from 104.62 and target 114.73 key resistance.

In the bigger picture, at this point, we’re slightly favoring the case that corrective decline from 118.65 (2016 high) has completed with three waves down to 104.62. Above 111.39 will affirm this view and target 114.73 for confirmation. However, it should be noted that USD/JPY is bounded in medium term falling channel from 118.65 (2016 high). Sustained break of 61.8% retracement of 104.62 to 111.39 at 107.20 will likely resume the fall from 118.65 through 104.62 low.