EUR/AUD Weekly Outlook

EUR/AUD rose further to 1.5823 last week before forming a temporary top there and turned sideway. Initial bias is neutral this week first. Further rally is expected as long as 1.5617 minor support holds. Above 1.5823 will target a test on 1.6139/89 resistance zone. However, below 1.5617 will turn bias to the downside for 1.5425 support first.

In the bigger picture, current development suggests that fall from 1.6189 is a corrective move and has completed at 1.5217 already. Key support levels of 1.5153 and 38.2% retracement of 1.3624 to 1.6189 at 1.5209 were defended. And medium term rise from 1.3624 (2017 low) is not completed yet. Break of 1.6189 will target 1.6587 key resistance (2015 high).

In the longer term picture, the rise from 1.1602 long term bottom (2012 low) isn’t over yet. We’ll keep monitoring the development but there is prospect of extending the rise to 61.8% retracement of 2.1127 to 1.1602 at 1.7488 and above. However, sustained trading below 1.3624 key support should indicate long term reversal and target 1.1602 long term bottom again.