GBP/JPY Weekly Outlook

GBP/JPY rebounded last week and breached 146.46 minor resistance. But momentum was rather unconvincing. Initial bias stays neutral this week first. On the downside, below 144.37 will target 143.18 first. Break will resume larger decline from 156.59 and target 139.25/47 cluster support level. However, break of 148.10 will resume the rebound from 143.18 and that will also be the first sign of near term reversal.

In the bigger picture, no change in the view that decline from 156.59 is a corrective move. In case of another fall, strong support should be seen above 139.29 cluster support (50% retracement of 122.36 to 156.59 at 139.47) to contain downside and bring rebound. Meanwhile, break of 153.84 should confirm that the correction is completed and target 156.59 and above to resume the medium term up trend.

In the longer term picture, the failure to sustain above 55 month EMA (now at 153.83) is mixing up the outlook. Nonetheless, as long as 139.29 holds, rise from 122.26 is in favor to extend to 50% retracement of 195.86 (2015high) to 122.36 (2016 low) at 159.11, and possibly further to 61.8% retracement at 167.78 before completion. However, firm break of 139.29 will turn focus back to 116.83/122.36 support zone instead.