EUR/JPY Weekly Outlook

EUR/JPY dipped to as low as 126.63 last week but rebounded from there. Despite breaching 128.50 minor resistance, the momentum of the rebound is not too convincing. Initial bias is neutral this week first. On the upside, break of 130.33 resistance will confirm resumption of rise from 124.61. That will also revive the case of near term reversal and turn bias to the upside for 133.47 key resistance. On the downside, break of 126.63 will bring retest of 124.61 low instead.

In the bigger picture, despite rebounding strongly ahead of 124.08 resistance turned support, there was no clear follow through buying. Note again that there is bearish divergence in daily MACD. Firm break of 124.08 will confirm trend reversal. That is, whole rise from 109.03 (2016 low) has completed at 137.49 already. In that case, deeper fall should be seen back to 61.8% retracement of 109.03 to 137.49 at 119.90 and below. Nonetheless, decisive break of 133.47 key resistance will likely extend the rise from 109.03 through 137.49 high.

In the long term picture, at this point, EUR/JPY is staying in long term sideway pattern, established since 2000. Rise from 109.03 is seen as a leg inside the pattern. As long as 124.08 support holds, further rally is in favor in medium to long term through 149.76 high. However, break of 124.08 could extend the fall through 109.03 low instead.