GBP/USD Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3139; (P) 1.3205; (R1) 1.3308; More…

GBP/USD’s rebound from 1.3101 extends to as high as 1.3314 so far. While further rise cannot be ruled out, outlook is unchanged. With 1.3471 resistance intact, outlook remains bearish for another decline. Break of 1.3101 will resume the fall from 1.4376 for 61.8% retracement of 1.1946 to 1.4376 at 1.2875 next.

In the bigger picture, current development suggests that whole medium term rebound from 1.1936 (2016 low) has completed at 1.4376 already, with trend line broken firmly, on bearish divergence condition in daily MACD, after rejection from 55 month EMA (now at 1.4177). 61.8% retracement of 1.1936 (2016 low) to 1.4376 at 1.2874 is the next target. We’ll pay attention to the reaction from there to asses the chance of long term down trend resumption. For now, outlook will stay bearish as long as 55 day EMA (now at 1.3527) holds, even in case of strong rebound.