USD/CHF Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9832; (P) 0.9863; (R1) 0.9887; More…

USD/CHF’s rally and break of 0.9911 minor resistance argues that the correction from 1.0056 has completed at 0.9787 already. Intraday bias is now on the upside for 1.0056 first. Decisive break there will resume the whole rise from 0.9186 and target 1.0342 key resistance next. On the downside, below 0.9824 will extend the correction from 1.0056. But we’d expect strong support from 0.9724 fibonacci level to contain downside and bring rebound.

In the bigger picture, medium term decline from 1.0342 has completed with three waves down to 0.9186. Rise from there is currently viewed as a leg inside the long term range pattern. Hence, while further rally would be seen, we’d be cautious on strong resistance from 1.0342 to limit upside. For now, further rise is expected as long as 38.2% retracement of 0.9186 to 1.0056 at 0.9724 holds. However, sustained break of 0.9724 will dampen this bullish view and would at least bring deeper fall to 61.8% retracement at 0.9518.