EUR/AUD Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.5500; (P) 1.5547; (R1) 1.5606; More….

Despite jumping to 1.5690, subsequent sharp fall and break of 1.5487 minor support argues that rebound from 1.5271 has completed already, ahead of 1.5773 support turned resistance as expected. EUR/AUD was limited limited by 55 day EMA. Intraday bias is turned back to the downside for 1.5271 low first. Break there will resume whole fall from 1.6189 to 1.5153 key support next.

In the bigger picture, rally from 1.3624 (2017 low) should have completed at 1.6189 already, ahead of 1.6587 key resistance (2015 high). 1.6189 is seen as a medium term top. Deeper fall would be seen to 38.2% retracement of 1.3624 to 1.6189 at 1.5209 first. Decisive break there will pave the way to 61.8% retracement at 1.4604. In that case, we’ll look for bottoming again below 1.4604. On the upside, firm break of 1.5773 support turned resistance is needed to indicate completion of the fall from 1.6189. Otherwise, further decline is expected in medium term, even in case of strong rebound.