USD/JPY Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 109.20; (P) 109.53; (R1) 109.87; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral with focus on 110.26 minor resistance. Break there will resume the rebound from 108.10 for a test on 111.39 high. On the downside, below 109.18 will bring another fall to 108.10 or below. Overall, price actions from 111.39 are viewed as a corrective pattern which might extend. But in case of deeper fall, we’d expect strong support from 61.8% retracement of 104.62 to 111.39 at 107.20 to contain downside and bring rebound.

In the bigger picture, at this point, we’re slightly favoring the case that corrective decline from 118.65 (2016 high) has completed with three waves down to 104.62. Above 111.39 will affirm this view and target 114.73 for confirmation. However, it should be noted that USD/JPY is bounded in medium term falling channel from 118.65 (2016 high). Sustained break of 61.8% retracement of 104.62 to 111.39 at 107.20 will likely resume the fall from 118.65 through 104.62 low.